Korean Crisis
The Korean Crisis refers to the period when, in 2017, North Korea conducted a series of missile and nuclear tests that demonstrated the country's ability to launch ballistic missiles beyond its immediate region and suggested that North Korea's nuclear weapons capability was developing at a faster rate than had been assessed by the U.S. intelligence community. This, coupled with a regular joint U.S.–South Korea military exercise undertaken in August 2017, as well as U.S. threats, raised international tensions in the region and beyond. During this period in 2017, North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test in early September, and heated rhetoric was exchanged, stoking fears about a possible war. By the beginning of 2018, however, tensions began to ease dramatically, with North Korea announcing the restoration of the Seoul–Pyongyang hotline and agreeing to hold talks with South Korea about participation at the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang. Diplomatic activity accelerated in the following months, with an unprecedented meeting with Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump in Singapore, the suspension of nuclear and missile tests by North Korea, and the 2018 inter-Korean summit in late April which culminated in the signing of the Panmunjom Declaration on April 27, 2018. Despite the summit and the normalization of relations with the west, North Korea made no commitments to remove its nuclear capabilities, despite American assurances to end South Korea–U.S military drills. The crisis concluded with a frozen conflict emerging in the North Pacific and renewed military activity by Japan. Background and South Korea until 2022.]] , literal and historic symbol of the animosity between North and South Korea.]] 'Nuclear proliferation' On August 8, 2017, US intelligence services reported that North Korea had successfully produced a miniaturized nuclear weapon capable of being mounted on an missile that could reach the continental United States. The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) estimated that North Korea would have a working nuclear weapon system, including an ICBM, miniaturized warhead, and working guidance system by 2018. The logic among contemporary American foreign policy analysts went that if North Korea posed a credible nuclear threat, it could destabilize the North Pacific by forcing Japan or South Korea to develop their own deterrent which would lead to wider hostilities with China, potentially threatening global trade. Despite ongoing negotiations, North Korea continued to develop its nuclear capabilities, detonating a 120 kT Hydrogen bomb on September 3; despite Chinese and American red line threats. 'North Korean missile tests' For much of the 2010s, North Korea's missile program had failed to produce a working weapon. However in spring of 2017 a series of new missile tests resulted in the development of a deliverable nuclear weapon that could strike US allies and assets in the Pacific and potentially the US mainland. By the end of May, North Korea had successfully tested advanced Medium and Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBMs/IRBMs) and was openly defying China who had made several overtures to bring the DPRK to the negotiating table. The turning point came on July 4th, 2017 when North Korea succesfully tested its first Intercontinental-Ballistic Missile (ICBM) with a range reaching the American mainland. Run-up to the war 'Diplomatic means' One of the US' main concerns was the significant threat North Korea posed to its forces in the Pacific. The successful test of medium range ballistic missiles placed naval and air bases in the region under considerable threat, potentially giving the People's Republic of China a clear path to control the South China Sea through an alliance with North Korea and the Philippines. Control of the South China Sea would position China to control Indian Ocean trade with the Pacific, and make North Korea a credible threat to American power in the region. China at the time, was not willing to risk a major war with the US to support the North Koreans and secure a position of power in the South Pacific. Diplomatic efforts, primarily those led by China, temporarily broke down after North Korea successfully tested its first ICBM, the Hwasong-14, on July 4th, 2017. After an unsuccessful effort to unify the international community in condemnation of the test in an emergency summit of the UN, the United States and South Korea began to more overtly broadcast their intent to attack. American diplomatic campaign efforts throughout Eastern Asia later in 2017 had opened up future possibilities of peace talks and negotiation with the Asian countries to help exert pressure over North Korea, along with strengthening involvement of US allies in Asia. The United States also began to insert CIA operatives into North Korea to uncover the extent of North Korea's nuclear installations. Back door negotiations continued well into December. In March 2018, North and South Korea began peace talks, with North Korea suggesting to the United States that they could denuclearize if the United States dropped its sanctions on the regime. President Donald Trump accepted the extended invitation by Kim Jong Un to host the first U.S.-North Korean summit in May that would hopefully warm relations between the two countries. In May, U.S.-North Korean summit was initially warm, but later broke down after an argument between the two countries over America’s military presence in South Korea. Diplomacy broke down once again when the United States moved more troops into South Korea. 'Military means' Acting on the Bush Doctrine's policy, and out of fear the North Koreans could launch an attack against Anderson Air Force Base in Guam, US President Donald J. Trump quickly ordered the US military to deploy carrier groups and air forces to the region to force North Korea to stand down. Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un continued to escalate the situation through air defense drills and threats of nuclear retaliation should the US, South Korea, or China attack. The US Navy dispatched three naval battle groups built around the aircraft carriers USS Carl Vinson, USS Ronald Reagan, and the USS Nimitz to the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan, where they were ready by 31 May. The US also sent the ballistic missile submarine USS Nebraska and USS Louisiana to the region, and had the Aircraft Carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt on standby in San Diego. More than 100 US Air Force F-16s immediately commenced round the clock air drills over South Korea to discourage further North Korean missile activities. They were joined by F-35 stealth fighters. On June 31, civil defense briefings began at Andersen Air Force Base in Guam in preparation for a North Korean attack. Naval battle groups would rotate in and out of Korean waters for the next 16 months before hostilities officially began. Outbreak 'Air Campaign' Upon President Trump's return from an overseas trip, the United States made one final ultimatum to North Korea, demanding that they cease all missile tests and nuclear enrichment efforts, and negotiated in good faith to end their nuclear program. On August 8, 2017, the Washington Post reported that North Korea had successfully created a miniaturized nuclear warhead capable of fitting inside a missile according to sources within the Defense Intelligence Agency. In light of these revelations, President Trump made the following statement: “North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with the fire and the fury like the world has never seen. He has been very threatening beyond a normal state, and as I said they will be met with the fire and fury and frankly power, the likes of which this world has never seen before...” Several hours later, other news sources began to report that North Korean forces had begun to arm their patrol ships with anti-ship munitions and were considering plans to conduct a preemptive missile strike on Guam. On August 28, the North Korean government carried out one of its most provocative missile tests by launching a ballistic missile directly over Japan. The missile flew over the northern island of Hokkaido and landed harmlessly in the sea, after a flight of nearly 1,700 miles. Although the test was denounced by the United States, Japan and South Korea it was not until September 3, 2017, when North Korea conducted a sixth nuclear test; the first in over a decade, at the country's Punggye-ri nuclear test site did the situation escalate into a full-blown nuclear crisis. Later in the month, the U.S. tried one last diplomatic approach by trying to persuade the United Nations to cut off all shipments of oil to the country, reminiscent of similar efforts to curtail Japan leading up to Pearl Harbor over 75 years prior, but was only able to pass a motion that halved the country's oil supply. This was followed in late September with additional sanctions by the US, but not without President Trump affirming to the UN that any attack on U.S. territory or allies would see the swiftest retaliation. In September 2018, North Korea launched four Hwasong-12 ICBM missiles at Guam, in response to the increased presence of the United States Armed Forces in the Korean Peninsula. The missiles, however, fell just short of hitting the island. Nevertheless, fallout from the attack was catastrophic for wildlife and tourism and this was seen as an act of war by the U.S. Immediately after the failed missile strike, President Trump ordered Defense Secretary Mattis to commence the attack, beginning with preemptive nuclear strikes against North Korea's nuclear launch sites. Long Range Standoff cruise missiles carrying W80 nuclear warheads were deployed with a yield of 8 kT, completely destroying North Korea's nuclear capability. While smaller than the bombs used at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the impact of using nuclear weapons for a second time in history was not lost on the public. President Trump's decision to use the bombs were hotly criticized in the press. Despite this, Trump received a small uptick in popularity at the outbreak of the war, with his approval ratings breaking through the 45% mark for the first time since taking office. While the nuclear attack was underway, B-1 Lancer strategic bombers and B-2 Spirit stealth bombers from Guam were deployed to strike North Korean artillery positions, accompanied by F-35 support fighters. Simultaneously EA-18G Growler electronic warfare planes were deployed from the Vinson and the Reagan to disable North Korean air defenses and communications. The President called South Korean President Moon Jae-in, and the other nuclear powers 5 minutes before the strike took place informing them of the US attack. South Korea, Russia, and China had been aware of the possibility for many weeks from open discussions with the US, however Britain, India, Pakistan, France, and Israel were hearing about the attack for the first time. The US strikes achieved a total destruction of North Korea's nuclear capabilities without any retaliatory launches, and the bulk of artillery positions along the border were destroyed as well. Additionally, EA-18G Growler flights cut off all communications between DPRK command and field commanders, slowing their response, but not the effectiveness of it as the DPRK Army had vested command authority into its field commanders in the event of a communications blackout. Several artillery positions were able to begin shelling Seoul, Incheon, and Yeoncheon before US and South Korean aircraft were able to destroy them. While the first strike was specifically designed to minimize the loss of life, some 35,000 people were killed in the opening hours of the war on both sides, the bulk of which were civilians in Seoul or North Korean military personnel. 'Ground skrmishes' South Korean land forces made up the brunt of the ground forces in the early days of the war, with fighting concentrated along the DMZ and largely against the few gurellia units that were able to infiltrate the South. While the US and South Korea conducted joint bombing campaigns against military targets in North Korea, plans for the invasion of North Korea were already being put into motion. On October 23, American amphibious forces prepared for an invasion of North Korea from the West when an incident of South Korean troops were fired upon by North Korean soldiers after stepping foot too far across the border. US and Japanese forces made up for less than a third of the total ground forces, but were able to secure victory at the border by November 3, 2018 after a grueling month of skirmishes with conventional North Korean forces and civilian partisans. Coalition forces did manage to push past Kaesong and Kosong, but not push further north due to the threat of Chinese intervention. However, supplies from China had been slowly reduced and North Korean nuclear facilities has been destroyed. Coalition forces agreed to hand off occupation duties to the South Korean Government after removing and disabling DPRK nuclear stockpiles and facilities. They also agreed to a reduction in forces on and near the peninsula. China would maintain border patrol stations for 5 years, and the US would begin a phased reduction of its troops in the South over 10 years. The conflict would again remain frozen. Post-Invasion phase 'Beginning of insurgency' In March 2019, the North Korean military began to see mass defections, which lead to infighting among military leaders in Pyongyang, with some questioning the authority of Kim Jong Un. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un promptly declared Marshal Law and ordered the questioning generals executed but the military had remained fractured and considerable damage has been made to North Korea's nuclear weapons program. With the civilian leadership gone and the military fractured, the US was unable to carry out negotiations for an end to the conflict. Controversies 'Radioactive fallout' The nuclear weapons used in the war to destroy North Korean launch facilities were W80 warheads on board modified Tomahawk missiles, set to a yield of 8 kT each. Significant study regarding the long term safety of nuclear weapons prior to the outbreak of the war acknowledged although detractors claim pyrophoric, genotoxic, and teratogenic heavy metal effects. Many cited the bombs' use during the war as a contributing factor to a number of instances of health issues in the conflict's veterans and surrounding civilian populations. 'Korean Famine' Many crops, which were nearby North Korean nuclear facilities, had been contaminated as radionuclides were retained on the surface of growing crops immediately after fallout, causing famines in many parts of the country. As the war dragged on, most North Korean agriculture that was unaffected by radioactive contamination were slowly destroyed during the conflict between guerilla fighters and allied troops as many had used farms for remote bases or areas of engagements, major and minor. Surplus food and supplies from South Korea and Japan were transported to occupied population centers to help lessen the affects of the famine. 'Impact' The artillery barrage on Seoul led to widespread panic throughout the city as millions of South Koreans tried to flee the capitol, leading to widespread looting and panic. In addition, North Korean forces were able to deploy several thousand guerrilla fighters into South Korea via the "Tunnels of Aggression" before coalition air strikes destroyed them. The chaos following the initial attack in the South sent Asian markets into a tailspin, leading to China deploying 50,000 troops to the North Korean border in a show of force that helped rally global markets. 'Economic' The war's outbreak caused a market crash in Korea that spread world-wide after the Port of Incheon was closed following North Korean shelling. Consumer spending saw an uptick prior to the outbreak of the war and just afterwards as civilians worldwide gathered provisions for fearing a wider war. Global markets rallied, however the panic from the crash combined with the use of nuclear weapons seriously damaged consumer confidence. Private capital investment contracted and the global economy fell into a recession by late 2018. Political The decision to use nuclear weapons against North Korea saw immediate backlash from left-wing groups in the US and Europe. However, conservative and moderate voters largely supported the action, leading to President Donald Trump experiencing a spike in popularity, with approval rating climbing above 45% for the first time in his term. However, this popularity would again falter as the North Korean insurgency set in, fueling anti-war sentiment in 2019. President Trump's response to criticism, the worsening recession, and public ambivalence towards the war resulted in the Democratic victory during the 2020 United States presidential election. The Democratic Party adopted a firm anti-nuclear weapons platform that struck a chord with voters who saw the use of a nuclear first strike as excessive. The global reaction to the United States' nuclear strike against North Korea continued to damage American credibility abroad. Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, addressing national concerns over drifting fallout, stated that, although he supported the attack on North Korea, he opposed the use of nuclear weapons. In his speech, he declared that America had become "an aggressive menace, as great a danger to its allies as to its enemies." Many historians mark this as the beginning of increased anti-American sentiment in Japan, which would increase in the years leading up to World War III. Japan would nonetheless take a leading role in the Korean War, shaping its position as a regional power in the decades to come. Coalition forces liberated the six known labor camps and discovered dozens of unreported mines and factories using slave labor, finally showing the true extent of the malevolence of the North Korean regime. The audacity led to an outcry of international support and charitable donations. 'Reunification' The Korean reunification was the process that began in 2022 in which the territory of the former Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) joined the Republic of Korea (South Korea) to form the reunited nation of Korea. The end of the unification process is officially referred to as Korean Unity Day, celebrated on 11 February, 2022 and commemorated yearly from there on out. Following Korean reunification, Seoul was once again designated as the capital of united Korea. The actual process of reunifying, however, would ultimately take decades, only really ending with the outbreak of the Third World War. The united Korea is considered to be the enlarged continuation of the South's republic and not a successor state, just like the reunited Germany back in 1990 was considered the enlarged continuation of West Germany's federal republic. As such, it retained all of South Korea's memberships in international organizations including the Trans-Pacific Partnership, while automatically relinquishing membership in international organizations to which only North Korea belonged. 'Early attempts at unification' After the Reunification treaty, Koreans on both sides began attempting to cross the border to reunite long separated families. Free travel was still somewhat restricted while EOD teams began the laborious process of clearing the DMZ of hundreds of thousands of landmines. UN and South Korean humanitarian aide stations established a program to allow families from the North to join those in the South, shifting the care taking responsibility onto the populous. These first months of reunification were defined by images of families separated by decades reuniting, humanitarian efforts to feed a nation of 15 million starving people, and an occupation that was largely reduced to disarming the former North Korean military. The US and China continued to provide naval and aerial reconnaissance support for the Koreans until 2022, when Reunification was officially put into effect. The 2022 Reunification declaration was based on disarmament guidelines, the creation of a unified Korean command structure, and the return of free travel between North and South. Within days of Reunification and the restoration, a mass exodus of those in the North began streaming into the South, and Southern businesses began moving North to capitalize on new markets and territory. South Korean agricultural businesses began setting up new farmland and manufacturing centers, while South Korean startups began moving to Pyongyang to take advantage of the 5 year tax break for Korean companies that invested in the North. For the former communist dictatorship's residents, this infusion of capital was a welcome relief. Unfortunately, many who had fled to the South after the free travel returned, began looking for handouts and placed a massive burden on the Korean welfare system. Problems also emerged in the North as former DPRK military and police forces who still expected to be treated like kings among their own people were caught demanding bribes and favors from the new businesses. Few police and military forces would join the retraining program set up by the government in Seoul, and many simply retired and used their decades of military training to organize a take-over of the Korean Mafia. Organized crime in the North began to deter businesses from relocating there, and foreign businesses began threatening to withdraw interest in the region. South Korea's government expanded its massive social welfare and public works program to improve the quality of life in the North, discourage organized crime, and address the problem of homelessness in the South from former DPRK citizens. By 2030, South Korea's development program for the North was costing the country so much that they were forced to privatize a number of public services to reduce the strain on the treasury. Private healthcare and retirement services were introduced while funding was cut for public health and pension programs. Despite these early efforts, the South's economy continued to decline under the weight of the North's economic and criminal problems. 'Runup to World War III' As Japan began to impose a more tangible threat to the Korean peninsula, the US began offering military and financial assistance to Korea. This buildup of the military provided much needed economic relief, but also united the country in a way that previous attempts never had been able to. The Korean government reopened North Korean military facilities and factories, driving southern experts north to manage the creation of a wartime economy, and brought the country together with a propaganda campaign designed by Hwang Sye-kyun, a former North Korean propaganda artist. Japan's invasion and subsequent occupation galvanized this effort, and unified Koreans against a common enemy like they had not seen in a century. After the war, the US-funded reconstruction effort led to a post-war economic boom, made stronger by a more integrated nation. The northern half of the country remains much more rural than the southern half, and while Pyongyang has grown to be a major metropolitan hub, Seoul remains the political and economic core of the country. Postwar Korea benefited from its proximity to China and a relationship with America that kept it a major trade hub. Today, Korea has suffered much like the rest of the world due to automation, but it has an aging population that helped build a stronger social safety net that made things tolerable. The nation is, in fact, similar to early 21st Century Finland in regards to its quality of life and its role in the global economy. Category:Countries in Asia Category:21st-century conflicts